Petrol Price Shock: Why Northern Ireland Drivers Are Paying Almost 30% More Than a Year Ago

Petrol prices in Northern Ireland have risen by almost 30% in just 12 months — but how much of the increase is unavoidable, how much is tax, and could governments actually do more about it?

For Northern Ireland motorists, the numbers at the forecourt have become increasingly difficult to ignore.

Consumer Council figures show average petrol was around 127.6p per litre in late September 2025. By 17 September 2026, its published Northern Ireland average had reached 164.1p per litre.

That represents an increase of around 36.5p a litre, or 28.6% in a year.

For somebody filling a 50-litre tank, the same quantity of petrol has therefore risen from roughly £63.80 to £82.05 — an increase of £18.25 every fill-up.

Four tanks a month would mean an additional £73 a month, or close to £900 a year, if those prices persisted. Households already dealing with other energy costs — including the recent heating oil price spike in Belfast — will recognise how quickly those pounds add up.

How petrol prices changed over the past year

The important point is that this was not a steady 12-month rise.

Prices actually fell during the winter, hitting around 124p in February. The dramatic change came from late March onwards.

Consumer Council data shows petrol moving from 124.8p on 12 March to 153.1p by 23 April. After easing during the summer, another sharp increase followed in August and September.

So are the reasons for the increase real?

In large part, yes.

International oil markets have experienced a genuine supply shock during 2026.

The Competition and Markets Authority has specifically investigated the impact of conflict in the Middle East on UK petrol and diesel prices. Its August monitoring report found no evidence, through the end of June, that retailers had deliberately changed their pricing strategies to take advantage of the crisis.

However, the CMA also said that a lack of effective competition in the road-fuel market remains a concern.

That distinction matters.

There is evidence of a real increase in the underlying cost of fuel. That does not mean every penny charged at every forecourt should automatically escape scrutiny.

By mid-September, Brent crude was still trading above $100 a barrel, with disruption to Middle Eastern oil infrastructure, falling tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and much higher transport costs affecting the market.

Reuters has also reported that alternative ship-to-ship routes being used to keep Middle Eastern oil moving have become significantly more expensive, with some tanker transport costs exceeding $30 per barrel.

So when motorists are told that international oil prices, shipping and geopolitical instability are increasing costs, those factors are genuine. The same international pressure has already been felt in other household bills, from Northern Ireland gas price rises to wider fuel-cost inflation.

But they are only part of the pump price.

How much of your petrol bill is tax?

A substantial amount.

UK petrol currently carries 52.95p per litre in fuel duty, following the government’s decision in May to extend the existing 5p-per-litre reduction until the end of 2026. VAT is then charged at 20% on road fuel.

At a pump price of 164.1p, VAT accounts for approximately 27.4p of the final price.

Add 52.95p of fuel duty and around 80p of every £1.64 litre is effectively tax.

In other words, close to half of the amount paid at the pump goes in duty and VAT.

There is also an uncomfortable feature of VAT during an oil-price spike: because VAT is percentage-based, the government’s VAT receipt increases as the underlying fuel price rises.

Can Stormont cut petrol prices?

Not directly through fuel duty.

UK-wide taxation is an excepted matter under Northern Ireland’s devolution settlement, meaning decisions over taxes such as fuel duty ultimately sit with Westminster rather than the Northern Ireland Assembly.

The Northern Ireland Economy Minister made the same point in an Assembly answer earlier this year, saying fuel prices are largely determined by international markets and UK Government taxation, which limits the Executive’s ability to intervene directly.

Stormont can still apply political pressure, introduce targeted support within devolved responsibilities, support public transport and businesses, and use bodies including the Consumer Council to improve price transparency. Separate consumer measures — such as the automatic £63 electricity discount for Northern Ireland households — show where devolved levers can still ease bills even when fuel duty cannot.

But an MLA cannot simply vote to reduce petrol duty in Northern Ireland by 10p tomorrow.

That power sits at UK level.

What could the UK Government actually do?

There are several policy choices available, although all have costs and trade-offs.

Fuel duty could be reduced temporarily. A 5p reduction in duty would potentially reduce a 50-litre fill by £2.50 before considering the associated VAT effect.

VAT could be reduced. Because VAT is currently 20%, cutting it would reduce the tax charged as wholesale prices rise. Any reduction would, however, reduce Treasury revenue.

Fuel duty could remain frozen for longer. The government had previously planned to begin reversing the temporary 5p duty cut during 2026, but in May extended the full reduction until 31 December.

Competition could be scrutinised more aggressively. The CMA already monitors retailer margins and says competition remains an issue even though it found no evidence retailers deliberately exploited the earlier 2026 crisis.

Drivers can be given better price information. Since February 2026, petrol stations across the UK have been required to report price changes to the government’s Fuel Finder system within 30 minutes. The idea is that apps and comparison services can expose large local differences and encourage motorists to buy from cheaper forecourts.

The CMA has previously estimated that shopping around could save as much as £9 on a tank in some circumstances.

What about Dublin?

This is where the comparison becomes particularly interesting.

Dublin petrol was approximately €1.87 per litre on 14 September, while AA Ireland’s national September average was also around €1.87, and the European Commission’s comparable Irish figure for 14 September was €1.89.

At the 17 September exchange rate, Northern Ireland’s £1.641 per litre was equivalent to roughly €1.91.

That means the headline pump-price difference between Northern Ireland and the Republic had become surprisingly small — and on these representative figures Northern Ireland was actually slightly more expensive.

It is worth stressing that exchange rates change daily and fuel specifications and individual forecourt prices vary, so this should be treated as an indicative cross-border comparison rather than an exact like-for-like station comparison.

Ireland’s government has also intervened on fuel taxation. Planned excise increases due in September were deferred as international fuel costs rose. AA Ireland calculated petrol at €1.87 per litre in September and said the postponed tax rise was an important factor in preventing an additional increase.

How does Northern Ireland compare with Europe?

European Commission data for 14 September shows just how widespread the current fuel shock has become.

European Commission-based figures show enormous differences between countries, reflecting different taxation systems, subsidies, retail markets and exposure to international energy costs.

So Northern Ireland is certainly not the most expensive place in Europe for petrol.

Drivers in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Denmark are paying considerably more.

But Northern Ireland’s rate of increase over the past year remains striking.

Germany has now gone further and announced a temporary €0.17-per-litre fuel tax reduction from October, illustrating that governments can directly soften an international price shock if they are prepared to absorb the loss in tax revenue.

Is someone profiteering?

There is not currently enough evidence to make that claim.

The latest published CMA investigation found no evidence that retailers had altered their pricing strategy to exploit the earlier phase of the Middle East crisis.

But there is an important caveat: that investigation analysed retailer behaviour only up to the end of June.

The enormous September increase happened afterwards.

It would therefore be reasonable for regulators to examine whether the latest fall or rise in wholesale costs is being passed through to motorists at the same speed in both directions.

That has historically been one of motorists’ biggest frustrations: pump prices can appear to respond very quickly when wholesale prices rise but much more slowly when they fall.

The bigger question

A rise from around £1.28 to £1.64 a litre in a year cannot simply be dismissed as motorists imagining things.

The increase is real.

International oil disruption is real.

Higher shipping costs are real.

But taxation is real too — and so is the government’s ability to change it.

For Northern Ireland, the frustrating part is that the biggest levers are not at Stormont.

With fuel duty and VAT controlled at UK level, the key decisions over whether motorists receive further relief will ultimately be taken at Westminster.

Meanwhile, competition remains something regulators can continue to scrutinise.

And with a 50-litre tank now costing roughly £18 more than it did a year ago, the question for many Northern Ireland households may no longer simply be why petrol has risen.

It is how long those prices are going to stay this high — and how quickly any fall in international oil prices will actually reach the forecourt.

LoveBelfast analysis, 23 September 2026. Northern Ireland figures are based on Consumer Council fuel-price data. European comparisons use European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin figures. Individual forecourt prices vary.