Iroko’s Grand National preparation took a massive hit when he ran a poor race in the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival.
The ante-post favourite for the Aintree showpiece went off second favourite for the race behind stablemate Jagwar, who finished a close second to Johnnywho, but never looked to really get going and came home a disappointing 10th, almost 30 lengths behind the winner, who is also owned by JP McManus.
For those tracking Grand National odds, the drift in the market that followed will have caught the eye immediately.
The Irish billionaire, on what was his birthday, would nonetheless have been delighted to have a 1-2 in the Ultima, especially with Johnnywho likely landing him a nice return at 18/1. At the same time, he would have been somewhat concerned by the fact his Grand National favourite was so disappointing.
It was McManus’ idea to go to the Ultima with Iroko in the first place. One of his joint-trainers, Oliver Guerriero, revealed that connections wanted to go to Cheltenham over the same route to Aintree as last year, which was a run in a Premier Chase at Kelso.
It is worth noting, though, that Iroko had to carry top weight of 12 stone in the Ultima, considerably more than his Grand National allocation of 11-1. Having almost a stone off his back could make all the difference back in Merseyside.
It was at four out that he started to clearly struggle and fade out of the contest. What is notable is that the Ultima is a three-mile and one furlong contest. While that still requires a strong stayer, it would have been run at a faster pace than the National, and four out from the finish is about when many would have put their foot on the gas.
Under top weight, Iroko perhaps could not kick on and was already worn out. The conditions, in other words, were stacked against him.
What does this mean for his Grand National chances?
His odds have doubled in the immediate aftermath of the Ultima, drifting from 7/1 to 14/1, but he remains in the top three of the betting, and there is perhaps more value in him now as an each-way offering. Those searching for racing tips ahead of Aintree may well find him highlighted as a horse to keep onside at the revised price.
He proved he can handle Aintree’s demands when finishing fourth last year, and he still has youth on his side at eight. Former winner I Am Maximus and last year’s third Grangeclare West, both ahead of him in the betting, are 10-year-olds, which recent history does not suggest is the prime age for getting the better of the National.
The Ultima was a chastening experience, but one run under atypical conditions does not define a horse’s entire campaign. It would be no surprise to see Iroko shorten back in when the dust settles.
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